In the metals market, supply fears have pushed the zinc price up to a four-year high.

Zinc, which is used to galvanise steel, hit $3,955 a metric tonne this morning, its highest since May 2022.

Traders have been watching signs of supply tightness on the London Metal Exchange, as warehouse stockpiles have dropped following mine supply cuts.

, head of metals at multi-asset brokerage , explains:

LME [zinc] inventories have been drawn sharply lower, mine and smelter disruptions have restricted refined availability, and supply outside China has become notably tight.

With consumers facing a thinner pool of immediately available units, relatively modest buying has produced a larger price response than elsewhere in the complex. Copper remains supported by the same availability concerns.

More on household costs from the ONS…

The latest figures show contributed quite a bit more to household inflation in the year to than it did in the year to .

That will come as no surprise for motorists, after the Iran war pushed up the price of petrol through March, April and May.

Transport contributed 0.79 percentage points (out of the total 2.8% rise) in the year to June, compared with 0.58pp in the year to March, the ONS said.

This was because of higher contributions from , which increased from 0.14 to 0.56pp over the same period.

Economists have already warned that higher fuel costs could eventually force the Bank of England to raise interest rates.

We have some more detail on where inflation is showing up in the economy this morning, with breakdowns on UK household costs from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The headline figure is that price rises between the first and second quarters of 2026.

Household costs rose by 2.8% in the year to , compared with 3.6% in the year to , the ONS said.

Here's what that looks like in the context of the last few years…

But there are some interesting breakdowns by in there.

For example: had the highest rise in costs of 3.0% in the year to June 2026.

At the other end of the scale were households, who saw costs rise 2.6% over the same period.

Through another lens: had just a 2.5% rise in annual costs compared with , for whom it was 2.9%…

…that is a reverse of what was happening during the , when were feeling the pinch.

The FTSE 100 is trading higher after yesterday's disappointment, with mining stocks among the best performing.

blue-chip index was 0.22% up at 10,815 points, making up some of its losses from yesterday when its relative lack of tech stocks meant it fell 0.8%, missing out on the party after blockbuster quarterly results.

The chipmaker announced on Wednesday that its quarterly revenue had doubled in a year to nearly , prompting founder to declare a "golden age" for the AI industry.

It prompted a rally across the Atlantic on Thursday, where the S&P 100 rose 0.97% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 1.57%. That may now be helping the after the fact…

, head of markets at , writes:

Strong numbers from Nvidia and other tech sector constituents like Crowdstrike and Salesforce have helped shore up market sentiment, supported by some hints at dampened tensions in the Middle East.

The next test of investors' mettle will come later when Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh addresses the Jackson Hole Symposium of central bankers and politicians.

While immediate concerns about levels of government debt may have eased, with bond yields coming back down, the underlying issues haven't gone away."

Sentiment may also have been helped by a survey suggesting business confidence has reached its highest point since the start of the .

The increased by four points to 53%, as stronger demand and greater optimism about the economy boosted companies.

also hit their highest level in more than three months this week as continued conflict in the and ongoing political uncertainty fuelled a rally.

and, all miners, were among the top risers on the .

is reportedly mulling whether it should quit , potentially delivering a blow to the .

officials are thought to be in talks with the country's leaders over taking a large stake in the country's oil fields, following surprise raid in January when he captured former leader .

One part of the discussions, reported Bloomberg, is whether could leave , which also includes and . No final decision has been made.

has already claimed that the controls oil and has called it the 51st state.

, founded in 1960, is a group of major oil-producing countries that works as a cartel to control global oil supplies and prices. It stands for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

oil-reated influence has waned since then. It pumped 1.16 million barrels a day in July, that of 10 years ago.

But its exit would add to doubts over the cartel's ability to hold a tight fist on global oil supply, as it has done for decades, after the also left the group earlier this year.

Here's our report from when the announced it back in April…

latest "everyday fix" to ease the cost of living will be to clamp down on , amid concerns that vulnerable people are being overcharged and face aggressive behaviour.

The said on Friday that he was strengthening the rules that apply to bailiffs in to better protect people in debt.

It comes two months after the Guardian revealed that the government had been accused of dragging its feet on the issue.

The industry collects more than annually – but enforcement companies are not required to be authorised by the and some have refused to sign up.

The government said will need to be accredited by the , or work for an enforcement company that is.

It added:

"Private bailiffs will be held to consistent professional standards, and those facing enforcement action will have access to an independent complaints process – strengthening the rights of the most vulnerable."

Back on this side of the pond, revised economic figures show that France only narrowly avoided a recession in the first half of the year.

Economic output shrank 0.2% in the first quarter and flatlined in the second, according to the .

Note: It had previously estimated just a 0.1% decline in January to March, and 0.2% growth in April to June.

The French government has been vocal about its goal of reducing the – which is when a government spends more money on public services, healthcare, and infrastructure than it collects in taxes and other income.

It has previously said it wants to bring the deficit to below 5% of GDP next year.

But it also has to balance that with pressure across to spend more on , as well as . Lower forecasts will only make that more difficult.

French minister for finance ⁠said on Friday said the figures showed ‌how this summer's heatwave had hit the economy, calling it "the first impact ​from ‌the ​horrible summer ​we have had".

Today is the second day of the Jackson Hole conference – here are the Fed chiefs arriving for dinner yesterday.

First, the man of the moment, Kevin Warsh.

And are a few more arrivals, including Fed governor Lisa Cook, who remains subject of plans to oust her over allegations of mortgage fraud – despite a decision that said she should remain.

received a letter from the earlier this month that accused her of falling "well short of the standard" required of a sitting and requested written response to the same mortgage fraud allegations as before.

The in June ruled 5-4 that was entitled to stay on as Fed governor while she fights the allegations, writing that "failed to afford the procedural protections to which she was entitled by statute".

lawyers called the allegations "as baseless now as they were a year ago".

And here is the president of the Kansas City Fed, Jeffrey Schmid, enjoying the scenery.

There is some speculation that Kevin Warsh won't give much forward-looking policy indications at all…

That is because he's previously said he doesn't think forward signals like this are useful outside of economic crises.

So what he say?

, research director at the trading firm , reckons:

This speech could focus on bigger issues, such as how he plans to run the world's most important central bank, and also what changes he will make and when.

While not offering direct guidance on the future of interest rates, everything he says will be scrutinised by investors, and changes that he plans to make could still trigger market volatility."

said in July that he still hadn't decided "whether it's going to be a big-picture speech" or something more traditional.

Reminder: governors usually use to signpost where monetary policy will go in the future, and that is a key indicator for financial markets.

wrote in a note to clients on Friday:

That leaves him a few options for today. According to our US economists, they think that a 'big-picture' speech could include a discussion of the Fed's taskforces, or potentially on AI's economic impact.

Alternatively, the 'more traditional' speech might see Warsh do a 'cleanup' of the July press conference, and he may wish to counter one market narrative that Fed policy actions could be delayed until the task forces have completed their work."

was accused by investors of sending confusing signals in his first press conference as Fed chair in July, after he expressed his commitment to curbing inflation without giving details.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the global economy, the financial markets, business and the global economy.

All eyes are on a mountain valley in today, as central bankers and economists gather close to Yellowstone national park for a top-level symposium.

Inflation, and the bond market, is top of the agenda at the annual symposium at this year, as the Iran war puts pressure on the global economy.

has been dubbed the Davos for central bankers, and today the financial markets are bracing for a speech from the world's most powerful central bank chief, , at 3pm UK time (10am Eastern).

is under pressure to provide clarity on how the , which he leads, should deal with inflation if price pressures don't abate. Last month he created uncertainty by suggesting that the markets, not the , should take the lead on tightening financial conditions.

But investors also hope to hear view on the recent interference in the bond markets by Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, who has been trying to push down US long-term borrowing costs by buying long-dated bonds.

move appears to put the on a collision course with the - lower borrowing costs will spice up the economy, undermining the battle against .

1. It will be first as , at a time when inflation remains stubbornly above target and long-term yields have been under pressure.

2. is trying to change the way the functions and communicates its policy to the market (or whether it communicates at all!).

3. Investors are questioning, since announced last week that it would increase its longer-term bond buybacks to tame borrowing costs, how the will respond to the intervention in the bond market, which – if successful – could interfere with the policy path and the transmission of its policy to the economy.

Last month, said he wanted his speech to focus on important points such as AI and productivity, demographic changes, and the global economy's response to shocks from the Iran war. So we shall see!

The agenda

• 10am: Eurozone inflation report for August

• 1.30pm: Canadian GDP for the second quarter

• 3pm UK (10am EDT: Fed chairman Kevin Warsh delivers the keynote address at Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in the US

• 3pm: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index