Donald Trump has suffered a historic defeat in the US 2026 midterms, as voters across the country put aside their doubts about pro-Gaza, pro-trans, pro-abortion Democratic candidates who promised to tackle inflation, says Tom Harwood

Something remarkable has happened in the United States of America. Something that had been thought to be completely impossible. The polling industry, for once, had a good night. The astonishing leads that had been forecast (but not believed) for Democratic candidates held true. And battleground state after battleground state fell from Trump’s grasp.

This was a night beyond the wildest expectations for the Democratic Party. Not only were the traditional toss-ups of Georgia, and Michigan held – as well as Maine and Ohio gained – but most stunningly of all deep red ‘Trump Country’ Kansas and Texas flipped blue.

In total, at least five (six if both Alaska and Mississippi) seats that had voted for Donald Trump by double digits just two years ago have seen generational swings against the President.

He says the drubbing was because he wasn’t on the ballot. That had his name been present things would have turned out differently. That is certainly a novel interpretation of events.

Trump’s policies drove up prices

A Fox News exit poll taken on the final day of voting showed that 62 per cent of voters believed prices have risen due to Trump’s own policies. The candidates personally endorsed by the President, including some who caused primary upsets, did disproportionally badly. And the cost of living time and time again was cited by voters who had no great love for the Democratic Party, but were flabbergasted and exhausted by many of the choices of this administration.

The economist Ryan Bourne put it succinctly as the direction of voting was becoming clear, writing: “having won an election because people hated inflation, I simply would not have imposed tariffs, badgered the Fed for rate cuts, run enormous budget deficits and thrown in a Middle Eastern war. But I appreciate there are different schools of thought.”

And there’s the nub of it. “It’s the economy, stupid” was the phrase made famous by top Clinton strategist James Carville who emblazoned it across a whiteboard in his 1992 campaign headquarters in Little Rock, Arkansas. The phrase could just have easily been applied to the events of Tuesday night.

It appears that voters in Texas are willing to overlook the past comments of a pro-abortion liberal who once claimed God is non-binary and that there are six sexes if he promised to reduce the price at the pump. Voters could even hold their nose and elect a Michigan Democrat who was unable to discern which country was a bigger threat out of Iran or Israel, because he promised to lower the price of eggs.

It appears that voters in Texas are willing to overlook the past comments of a pro-abortion liberal who once claimed God is non-binary and that there are six sexes if he promised to reduce the price at the pump

The Republicans attempted to stem the tide with billions (yes, billions) spent on ads branding their Democratic opponents as woke, highlighting issues such as attitudes to sex changes or transgender athletes competing in women’s sports. But the particulars of who is allowed in which high school sports team fade into lesser significance when the cost of commuting spirals by almost 40 per cent in a single year.

Now, the knives are out. No longer does the President look completely unassailable. As outgoing Florida governor Ron DeSantis lamented, “Looking at the Senate map and considering such a massive House margin, it is very unlikely Republicans will recapture the Congress in 2028. [We] might not have a shot at Senate control until 2032.”

It feels like there is bloodletting to be done within the Grand Old Party. And maybe, just maybe, everything from interventionism to tariffs to deficit reduction may be up for debate once more. A man can dream.